When you should STOP tapping your gear
A pre-commit framework so "one more tap" never becomes "threw three billion into the void." Sunk cost is not a strategy.
Checked Aug 2026Read →
Garmoth already gives you the success rates. What it doesn't give you is the question that actually costs people billions: should you be tapping this at all? We do the expected-value math so you can set a cap before you start — not after you're already down three billion.
Set your attempt, the success chance, and your silver cost per tap. We'll show you the expected number of taps, the expected silver, and the real probability you succeed within your budget.
At 5% success, the average PEN attempt takes 20 taps. Multiply by your per-tap cost. That's your realistic number — not your hopeful one.
Variance is brutal. A sane hard-stop is ~3× the expected cost. If losing that much ends your week, you're tapping above your weight.
Look up the same item on the marketplace. If a clean one costs less than your expected + cap, the tap is the luxury option.
Caps exist to be hit. When you hit it, sell your failstack, breathe, and let the market save you.
Every tap after your cap has the same odds as the first — the money you already lost is gone and irrelevant. The only question is whether a fresh expected-cost is worth it. Treat each tap as independent, because it is.
For high-value gear where one fail hurts, Cron stones cap your downside at the stone cost instead of the full item. They're a tax — but a tax that prevents catastrophe. Use them on the items you can't afford to lose, skip them on the cheap ones.
A pre-commit framework so "one more tap" never becomes "threw three billion into the void." Sunk cost is not a strategy.
At ~5% the average attempt is 20 taps — and reality often runs 2–3× that. The honest expected waste, quantified.
The lever that makes high-tier enhancement affordable — and the point where over-stacking wastes as much as under-stacking.
The new BIS accessories end at the same stats but split on tradeability, base stats and enhancing. Plus how to move your Kharazad in.